Wednesday, August 22, 2007

The Trouble with Canroys

Brian, I have one question that keeps coming up on all the boards about CANROYS. The comments are that since the CANROYS pay out such a large dividend, and if they are not able to increase their production capabilites that the stocks will reduce in price over time as all the dividends are paid out. (or something close to this). Do they have a point or is this true for all oil and gas companies.

Jake, It is true that Canroys (and REITS and Master limited partnerships or MLPs in the States) are valued based on their dividend payout which is closely related to cash flow. In the States, REITs and MLPs must pay out 95% of income by law. In Canada, it is left to the royalty trust what percent to pay out.

This is an important distinction in my mind. The additional flexibility in Canada allows the Canroys to use a larger percent of income to make acquisitions to replace or expand production. You will see this is happening with the better trusts we invest in when you read the quarterly and annual reports of the trusts. PWE reinvests about 40% of its income in production, either making acquisitions (like the recent C1 Energy acquisition) or investing in additional wells on existing leases or rehabbing old wells. American trusts (MLPs and REITs) do have a problem with reinvesting in production and must issue more shares (diluting current owners) to raise money for acquisitions or expansions.

The metric that is used to measure how likely Canroys are to keep producing is Reserve Life. I look for a reserve life of at least 10 years. This doesn't mean the trust becomes worthless in 10 years, but that is how much "proven reserves" are available to last at current production rates. Each trust also has "probable reserves" which are normally many times the proven reserves. Probables are on leases that have yet to be tested, but are known to have oil and/or gas. So, as long as the trust doesn't run out of oil / gas, it will continue to produce and pay dividends.

The only other thing that can go wrong is a collapse in the price of oil and gas. Most of the trusts have a business model that generates current dividends well below current prices. (PWE's dividend model is around $40 a barrel). If the price of energy goes below that level, then profitability declines and they may start "shutting in" wells to eliminate marginally profitable pumping. But I am betting againsts that happening anytime soon. It would require a lengthy global recession to significantly reduce global energy demand.

So, in short, if we stick with the big trusts like PWE or PGH, I don't think there is much to worry about. If the trusts are acquired by a private company, then we will get a nice one time appreciation, but will lose the long term dividend. So, I am hoping the trusts remain independent and the Canadian gov't backs off on the tax change.