Goodbye, President Bush; We Will Miss You

I do not name this post sarcastically. I know I am in the minority, but I will miss President Bush. Yes, he was hard to watch and listen to at times, with his less than perfect execution of the English language (and won't the liberal comedians miss him for this?!). And yes, he was bullheaded and stubborn and overly loyal to his friends; and he could stick too long to his conservative principles when pragmatism suggested otherwise. But that is also why I liked President Bush. Like every human, he was fallible. But unlike most politicians, he was humble and able to laugh at himself. He knew he was not very polished and he reveled in his imperfections.

I just read a great piece on President Bush's retirement from the Presidency by Karl Rove. Yes, it is biased as Rove was Bush's right hand man for many years. But it is also honest and true. Read the article below. I think regardless of your political orientation, you will appreciate the great human being that is George W. Bush. And note his accomplishments. Did anyone besides me and Karl Rove get the irony of President Barak Obama warning terrorists that "you cannot outlast us"? This statement was only made possible by the unpopular policies of President George W. Bush. In the unvarnished re-examination of historians, he will be remembered for protecting us at one of our darkest times.


OPINION
JANUARY 21, 2009, 10:48 P.M. ET

Bush Was Right When It Mattered Most

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258532378704477.html

By KARL ROVE

Its call sign has always been Air Force One. But on Tuesday, it was Special Air Mission 28000, as former President George W. Bush and his wife Laura returned home to Texas on a plane full of family, friends, former staff and memories of eight years in the White House.

The former president and his wife thanked each passenger, showing the thoughtfulness and grace so characteristic of this wonderful American family.

A video tribute produced warm laughter and inevitable tears. There was no bitterness, but rather a sense of gratitude -- gratitude for the opportunity to serve, for able and loyal colleagues, and above all for our country and its people.

Yet, as Mr. Bush left Washington, in a last angry frenzy his critics again distorted his record, maligned his character and repeated untruths about his years in the Oval
Office. Nothing they wrote or said changes the essential facts.

To start with, Mr. Bush was right about Iraq. The world is safer without Saddam Hussein in power. And the former president was right to change strategy and surge more U.S. troops.

A legion of critics (including President Barack Obama) claimed it couldn't work. They were wrong. Iraq is now on the mend, the war is on the path to victory, al Qaeda has been dealt a humiliating defeat, and a democracy in the heart of the Arab world is emerging. The success of Mr. Bush's surge made it possible for President Obama to warn terrorists on Tuesday "you cannot outlast us."

Mr. Bush was right to establish a doctrine that holds those who harbor, train and support terrorists as responsible as the terrorists themselves. He was right to take the war on terror abroad instead of waiting until dangers fully materialize here at home. He was right to strengthen the military and intelligence and to create the new tools to monitor the communications of terrorists, freeze their assets, foil their plots, and kill and capture their operators.

These tough decisions -- which became unpopular in certain quarters only when memories of 9/11 began to fade -- kept America safe for seven years and made it possible for Mr. Obama to tell the terrorists on Tuesday "we will defeat you."

Mr. Bush was right to be a unilateralist when it came to combating AIDS in Africa. While world leaders dithered, his President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief initiative brought lifesaving antiretroviral drugs to millions of Africans.

At home, Mr. Bush cut income taxes for every American who pays taxes. He also cut taxes on capital, investment and savings. The result was 52 months of growth and the strongest economy of any developed country.

Mr. Bush was right to match tax cuts with spending restraint. This is a source of dispute, especially among conservatives, but the record is there to see. Bill Clinton's last budget increased domestic nonsecurity discretionary spending by 16%. Mr. Bush cut that to 6.2% growth in his first budget, 5.5% in his second, 4.3% in his third, 2.2% in his fourth, and then below inflation, on average, since. That isn't the sum total of the fiscal record, of course -- but it's a key part of it.

He was right to have modernized Medicare with prescription drug benefits provided through competition, not delivered by government. The program is costing 40% less than projected because market forces dominate and people -- not government -- are making the decisions.

Mr. Bush was right to pass No Child Left Behind (NCLB), requiring states to set up tough accountability systems that measure every child's progress at school. As a result, reading and math scores have risen more in the last five years since NCLB than in the prior 28 years.

He was right to stand for a culture of life. And he was right to appoint conservative judges who strictly interpret the Constitution.

Few presidents had as many challenges arise during their eight years, had as many tough calls to make in such a partisan-charged environment, or had to act in the face of such hostile media and elite opinion.

On board Special Air Mission 28000, I remembered the picture I carried in my pocket on my first Air Force One flight eight years ago. It was an old black-and-white snapshot with scalloped edges. It showed Lyndon Johnson in the Cabinet Room, head in hand, weeping over a Vietnam casualty report. George Christian, LBJ's press secretary, gave it to me as a reminder that the job could break anyone, no matter how big and tough.

But despite facing challenges and crises few others have, the job did not break George W. Bush. Though older and grayer, his brows more furrowed, he is the same man he was, a person of integrity who did what he believed was right. And he exits knowing he summoned all of his energy and talents to defend America and advance its ideals at home and abroad. He didn't get everything right -- no president does -- but he got the most important things right. And that is enough.

Mr. Rove is the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.

Buffett's Saintly Proposal - Part 2

Answering Part 1 by my acquantiance: "If you took the stated book value of BRK and then adjusted it by adding in the value of the float from the insurance business ( which essentially was free capital for Buffett to allocate as long as the loss ratio was below 100 ) you could buy Berkshire for roughly 1X adjusted book. I thought that was a pretty good deal and the logic made sense to me [when I first looked it several years ago]. I could effectively hire Warren to manage my money on a dollar for dollar basis, no management fee!

At this point, I have a pretty substantial gain in BRK and I am concerned what Hillary/Obama and a Democrat [party] congress might do to me. They seem determined to raise taxes on capital and drive more capital and jobs overseas as a result. I love to point to Ireland as the antithesis of this warped way of thinking. Low taxes and favorable treatment of capital attracts capital and creates jobs. You know this as well as I do of course. Anyway - long winded way of saying I'm not sure what I might do with my holdings given the valuation, Warren's age, and the chance that taxes may go up. I would like to re-run the analysis on the value of the float however. It is an interesting viewpoint."

My response to the idea that BRK was still a good value:

"Your analysis / logic of BRK and mine are about the same. I read everything ever written on Warren Buffett during the mid 1990s. I became quite a student on his technique, and by extension, his mentor (Ben Graham). But, I also read the quips that he thought his own company was overvalued and wouldn't buy it himself. But you did choose the right time to buy (2002-03) his stock. That was near the end of a eight plus year plateau in BRK during the dot com bubble when insurance and consumer durables were too boring and that culminated with Katrina and concerns over his exposure through General RE. That period included a few mistakes like US Air and Solomon Bros that damaged his reputation as the untouchable / invincible investor.

But since that time, the B shares have spiked from $2000 to $5000 over a two year period as he has come back into vogue with his timely utility, CNOOC and railroad investments. At the same time, nothing special happened with BRK's fundamental value to justify that spike (the deals that went his way did not double the cash flow). This is a company that probably can't grow earnings / cash flow more than 10 to 12% annually, just based on its size, no matter how smart individual deals. So, a 150% pop in stock price has probably taken it past fair value. But I haven't done the analysis either, so can't say that for certain. I am also concerned about his age, and, irrationally, his politics.

You express concern about Hil-Obama. But Warren is a major benefactor to Hillary's campaign, and would back Obama, if not Hillary. He also came out with the ridiculous and dishonest position supporting raising income taxes on the wealthy, even though he shows very little income the way he compensates himself (minimized by paying no dividend). He is a hypocrite on this point and it was a big disappoint to me when he took this position. I wonder if he would support a wealth tax just as readily. The idea that the government can do a better job taking care of society than people of means, like himself, is against what he has always stood for. If he really believes his own hyperbole, Buffett should have just donated his wealth to the government rather than to the Gates Foundation. It would be more genuine for him to campaign for be tter treatment of charitable giving than to bash wealth. (BTW...he was notorious for being a skinflint and not giving anything to charity until the last few years when he finally realized he couldn't take it with him)."