We just talked about the future of commodities yesterday. And just like that, they take a dive, just as we discussed. The reason is as we thought: the Fed signaled it would defend the banking system, but would not go overboard on interest rates. All this supports the dollar and reduces the anti-dollar trade. The commodities were all over bought, and have a way to go to correct. I am looking at the prices from last April-May as a reasonable level. This price level was confirmed in the August selloff for most commodities. It was after that the commodities exploded upward.
I think this will go on till oil is at $80, maybe even $70 and gold is at $800, or a little less. I would look to get in around that time, maybe 4-6 weeks out. FCX at $60 or BHP at $50 also look good. POT around $75 and MOS just under $40 look good, too. The other option is wait for these stocks to hit the sold off levels, then buy those mutual funds we discussed, like FNARX.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Big Commodity Sell-Off
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