Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Big Commodity Sell-Off

We just talked about the future of commodities yesterday. And just like that, they take a dive, just as we discussed. The reason is as we thought: the Fed signaled it would defend the banking system, but would not go overboard on interest rates. All this supports the dollar and reduces the anti-dollar trade. The commodities were all over bought, and have a way to go to correct. I am looking at the prices from last April-May as a reasonable level. This price level was confirmed in the August selloff for most commodities. It was after that the commodities exploded upward.

I think this will go on till oil is at $80, maybe even $70 and gold is at $800, or a little less. I would look to get in around that time, maybe 4-6 weeks out. FCX at $60 or BHP at $50 also look good. POT around $75 and MOS just under $40 look good, too. The other option is wait for these stocks to hit the sold off levels, then buy those mutual funds we discussed, like FNARX.

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